Government intervention,sectoral productivity growth and structural transformation

This article examines the long-term impact of government intervention and sectoral productivity on structural transformation. We construct a multi-sector Dynamic General Equilibrium model that explicitly incorporates government intervention as a force of structural transformation. The government affects the economy through taxation and lump sum transfers. We show that in the steady state, a reduction in the tax rate and an increase in sectoral productivity will decrease the agricultural employment share, and when nonhomotheticity of preference is strong enough, these changes can also increase the share of services employment.     

重点国有林区产业结构综合效益的影响及评价

通过测算2003~2013年重点国有林区产业结构综合效益指数Z及产业结构贡献份额指数Z',对林区产业结构综合效益进行综合评价,得到以下主要结论:2003~2013年Z值与Z'值均大于零,反映了期间林区产业结构效益较好,产业结构实现了一定程度的优化;2005~2010年Z值与Z'值的变动趋势始终保持很高的一致性水平,说明产业结构调整长期以来对重点国有林区产业结构效益及经济发展具有重要影响;2003~2004年Z值和Z'值的变动趋势是相反的,Z值上升,Z'值下降,说明技术进步因素对改善林区产业结构效益同样具有积极作用。建议进一步调整和优化产业结构,增加产业发展的技术含量,为重点国有林区充分应对全面停伐新常态提供支撑。     

变电设备红外线热成像诊断技术的准确性分析

红外诊断技术是一种新型诊断技术,为变电设备的热诊断提供了很好的诊断方式,该种诊断方式有着不解体、直观性、快速性、准确性的特征,也适宜用在大面积检测中,同时,该种诊断技术也能够与其他检测方式联合使用,定位故障的具体位置,这就可以有效提升检修的便利性。但是,影响红外线热成像诊断技术准确率的因素是多种多样的,在进行诊断时,必须要合理地控制其测量环境与测量方式。本文主要分析影响红外线热成像诊断技术准确性的因素,并提出相关的解决措施。     

终身学习视角下公共图书馆的转型与发展思考

公共图书馆作为公共文化服务体系的重要组成部分,在构建学习型社会的大背景下,为促进终身学习的理念,借鉴国外图书馆的前沿探索,提升人文素质和知识内涵,实现公共图书馆在新的历史形势下自身的转型与发展。     

加快转变经济发展方式的思考与研究

只有坚持科学发展才能全面建成小康社会,而只有加快转变经济发展的方式才能做到科学发展,这是贯彻落实十八大精神和科学发展观的内在要求。加快转变经济发展方式,就必须解放思想,坚持改革开放,实施创新驱动发展战略,推动经济战略性调整,推动城乡发展一体化、实施技术进步和创新,全面提高开放型经济水平。     

Land pressures,the evolution of farming systems,and development strategies in Africa: A synthesis

Evidence assembled in this special issue of Food Policy shows that rising rural population densities in parts of Africa are profoundly affecting farming systems and the region’s economies in ways that are underappreciated in current discourse on African development issues. This study synthesizes how people, markets and governments are responding to rising land pressures in Africa, drawing on key findings from the various contributions in this special issue. The papers herein revisit the issue of Boserupian agricultural intensification as an important response to land constraints, but they also go further than Boserup and her followers to explore broader responses to land constraints, including non-farm diversification, migration, and reduced fertility rates. Agricultural and rural development strategies in the region will need to more fully anticipate the implications of Africa’s rapidly changing land and demographic situation, and the immense challenges that mounting land pressures pose in the context of current evidence of unsustainable agricultural intensification, a rapidly rising labor force associated with the region’s current demographic conditions, and limited nonfarm job creation. These challenges are manageable but will require explicit policy actions to address the unique development challenges in densely populated rural areas.     

唐钢南厂区铁路运输与仓储设施的改造

对唐钢南厂区运输与仓储设施存在的问题进行了分析和总结。针对存在的不足,按照厂内运输系统优化的原则,从铁路站场改造、扩大仓储能力以及铁路运输设备重载化、专用化等方面提出运输方案及改造措施并实施,从而增强了唐钢南厂区的运输能力,提高了产品发运的物流服务水平。     

转型时期人民当家作主主体自觉性缺失与构建探讨

党的十八大强调夺取中国特色社会主义新胜利,必须坚持人民主体地位。笔者分析了我国转型时期主体自觉性缺失对人民当家作主的制约,提出了通过健全各项民主制度扩大人民当家作主的群众基础、加强法制宣传教育以增强人民依法维权自觉性、建设社会主义核心价值体系提供精神动力和思想保证等措施来构建人民当家作主的主体自觉性。     

Out-of-sample density forecasts with affine jump diffusion models

We conduct out-of-sample density forecast evaluations of the affine jump diffusion models for the S&P 500 stock index and its options’ contracts. We also examine the time-series consistency between the model-implied spot volatilities using options & returns and only returns. In particular, we focus on the role of the time-varying jump risk premia. Particle filters are used to estimate the model-implied spot volatilities. We also propose the beta transformation approach for recursive parameter updating. Our empirical analysis shows that the inconsistencies between options & returns and only returns are resolved by the introduction of the time-varying jump risk premia. For density forecasts, the time-varying jump risk premia models dominate the other models in terms of likelihood criteria. We also find that for medium-term horizons, the beta transformation can weaken the systematic effect of misspecified AJD models using options & returns.